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  • Writer's pictureRaymond Kanyo, CFA

MarketBites: Optimism And Warnings Signs


Portfolio Manager Commentary:

Stocks rallied for the fourth straight day, commodities recovered from earlier losses, the dollar dropped for the first time in a week, bitcoin rallied, and the yield curve (a recession signal) remained inverted.

Why is the market optimistic all of a sudden? Some believe the Fed might be able to pull off a soft landing. This means that the Fed could return inflation to about 2% without causing a recession in the United States. Therefore, any data point that suggests that either inflation is coming down or that the economy is doing well should boost the stock market.

Despite the optimism, the yield curve remains inverted. This signals that overall the market continues to expect a recession, so investors should remain vigilant. This bear market might not be over yet.

Commodities rallied as China announced a $220 billion bond program to bolster its economy. China is one of the largest commodity exporters in the world.

In the UK, Prime Minister Boris Johnson resigned to focus on day trading cryptocurrency. Just kidding, but he did resign after a series of scandals and cabinet resignations.

Chart of the Day:

The 2 and 10-year US Treasury yield curve remains inverted. This means that the yield on a 2-year Treasury is higher than the yield on a 10-year Treasury. The inversion tends to precede recessions.

Source: Bloomberg

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